High stock markets, low interest rates, surging luxury home sales, a spring full of local IPOs, and San Mateo County hit a new high in median house sales price (by a nose).

July 2019 Report

San Mateo County real estate saw a strong Q2 market, though, generally speaking, not quite as competitive as the white-hot market in the first half of 2018. The median house sales price bounced back up to slightly exceed the previous peak in Q2 2018, and thus return to positive year-over-year appreciation after the small decline in Q1 2019.

The luxury home market was very strong – the stand out segment – surging to dramatic new highs in sales volumes this spring, mirroring a similar dynamic in San Francisco.

The market typically begins to slow down for summer after the spring selling season ends, though homes certainly continue to sell.

Median Home Prices

San Mateo Luxury Home Sales

Selected Supply & Demand Statistics

Sales volume jumped back up from its mid-winter nadir, but remained somewhat lower than volumes seen in the previous 2 springs.

The next four charts generally indicate solid buyer demand in Q2, but also illustrate the differences between this past spring and the extremely heated demand seen from spring 2017 through spring/early summer 2018.

Overpricing: Negative Ramifications for Sellers
& Opportunities for Buyers

We performed longer-term analyses of the effects of overpricing – as indicated by the need for price reductions before the property sold – on every major market in the Bay Area and the results were uniformly similar. As would be expected, there were dramatic differences in the sales price to list price percentage and time on market before sale. But there were also very substantial differences in the average dollar per square value realized upon sale – and the hotter the market, the larger the percentage decline in dollar per square foot value that accompanied price reductions. This is almost certainly due to missing out completely on the sales-price-enhancing effects of overbidding.

So, overpricing typically lowers values for sellers, which also signifies opportunities for buyers who keep their eyes open for price reductions and react accordingly.

Mortgage Interest Rates Hit Multi-Year Lows

A Critical Dynamic in Affordability & Buyer Demand