The SF Team, Eva + James, Compass

The table below compares Q3 statistics across 5 years.  Since the dynamics of the SF house and condo markets have significantly diverged since the pandemic struck - the condo market has been weaker - we broke some of the 2020 stats out separately in the table, and then in some of the charts following. 

 

San Francisco real estate market comparison table showing selected house and condo indicators for Q3 2016–2020.
 

The inventory of condo listings on the market has been soaring, and price reductions are heavily concentrated in the condo market. Hundreds are still selling each month and that number has been rebounding in the last couple months - but increases in supply continue to outpace demand. Within the condo market, the high-rise segment appears to be the weakest, almost certainly due to pandemic-related reasons.

 

San Francisco real estate market chart comparing house and condo activity, with listing counts and percentages.
 

Median sales prices can rise because of increases in fair market value – i.e. buyers are paying more money for the same home (supply and demand) – and/or because buyers are purchasing larger or more expensive houses. Affluent and very affluent buyers are an increasing percentage of the total market throughout the Bay Area. In San Francisco, the average size of houses sold in Q3 jumped almost 6% year over year. 

 

Bar chart of San Francisco average home size, rising from 1,800 square feet in Q3 2016 to 1,997 in Q3 2020.
 

Long-Term Trends in Median Sales Prices 

through YTD 2020 

 

Chart comparing San Francisco house, condo, and TIC median sale prices from 1993 to 2020.
 

Annual Percentage Changes in Median Sales Prices through YTD 2020

 

We have been getting many questions on annual percentages up and down in median sales prices, so we updated the following 2 charts. The 2020 YTD percentage will almost certainly change, one way or another, by the time full-year sales data is in. 

 

Bar chart of San Francisco median house price changes from 1994 to 2020 YTD, with market-event annotations.
Bar chart of San Francisco condo price changes since 1994, with annotations for major market cycles.
 

Luxury Home Sales by Quarter  

 

Q2 is typically the strongest selling season for luxury homes, but the pandemic changed that dynamic in 2020. Though the SF luxury segment recovered in Q3, in many other counties around the Bay, luxury home sales have soared to all-time highs.

 

Bar chart comparing quarterly San Francisco luxury home and condo sales from 2017 through 2020.
 

Active inventory has been surging in recent months (first chart below), as has the months supply of inventory (second chart). As mentioned before, the supply of condos for sale is currently dominating SF inventory. 

 

Bar chart of San Francisco active listings, with listings rising sharply to about 1,700 by September 2020.
Chart comparing San Francisco condo and house months of inventory from 2005 to 2020, with a pandemic-era spike.
 

Even if supply is outpacing demand, more listings went into contract in September than in any month in the last 2 years. 

 

Chart of San Francisco listings going into contract by month, with seasonal peaks and a sharp pandemic-era dip.
 

But the number of price reductions - again heavily concentrated in the condo market - has jumped to its highest point in many years. In certain segments, sellers are now competing for buyers, instead of buyers competing for listings. 

 

Bar chart of San Francisco active-listing price reductions, with a sharp rise from June to September 2020.
 

Median House & Condo Sales Price Trends by District 

 

The 3 charts below are focused on the districts in which the greatest number of house or condo sales occur. The first 2 refer to house sales and the third to condo sales. 

 

Bar chart comparing San Francisco median home sale prices by year across four Realtor districts.
San Francisco median home sale prices by year across Realtor districts, 2012–2020.
Chart comparing San Francisco condo sale prices by year across five realtor districts, 2012–2020.
 

In September, we also updated our semi-annual Survey of Bay Area markets. 

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