San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate Markets Survey | Blog

Note that it is not unusual for median home sales prices to peak for the calendar year in spring (Q2). This is due not only to heightened buyer demand, but also to the extreme seasonality of the luxury home market – more luxury home sales (as a percentage of total sales) pull overall median sales prices up.

Chart comparing Q2 2019 median home prices across Bay Area counties and regions, with San Francisco highest at $1.7 million.

Year-over-Year Median Home-Price Appreciation (or Depreciation) Rates

Markets in late 2017 through spring 2018 were very hot virtually throughout the Bay Area – perhaps the hottest they’ve been since 2000, the height of the dotcom boom. In the second half of 2018, markets cooled considerably – besides issues of simple affordability, financial markets saw nerve-wracking volatility and large declines, and interest rates jumped dramatically. Then, in 2019, stock markets recovered to hit new peaks and interest rates hit multi-year lows, and markets heated up again.

However, generally speaking, except for those markets most affected by the slew of local high-tech IPOs – San Francisco and the greater Oakland market – most markets saw either no significant year-over-year appreciation or year-over-year declines in median house sales prices. (Santa Cruz County bucked this trend.) The next major indicator of market direction will come from autumn selling season data: The season runs from early-mid September to early-mid November. Markets then typically go into the mid-winter holiday doldrums for a couple months.

Chart comparing year-over-year median home sale price changes across Bay Area counties, with earlier gains and later declines.

Bay Area & California Long-Term Median House Price Trends

Chart comparing Bay Area and California home prices from 1990 to 2019, annotated with major market cycles.

Median House Sales Price Trends by Bay Area County

Line chart comparing median Bay Area single-family home sale prices by market from 1990 to 2019.

Chart of annual median single-family home prices in five Bay Area counties, 1990–2019.

Compound Annual Home Price Appreciation Rates

When calculating these rates, results can vary enormously depending on the year the calculation begins with. These start with the year 2000 – if we started with 1995 – prices rapidly appreciated between 1995 and 2000 – the rates would jump; if we began with 2007 – the height of the subprime boom – then the rates would drop. (The same issue exists with calculating stock market returns.)

These very approximate calculations do not reflect any of the tax benefits that have applied at various times to home ownership and to the sale of one’s primary residence. And they are based simply on the all-cash purchase price and the sales price, without adjusting for closing costs (or the effect of not paying all cash upon purchase).

Bar chart of Bay Area home price appreciation rates, led by San Francisco at 6.1% and Monterey at 3.1%.

Bay Area House & Lot Sizes

Chart comparing approximate house square footage at median sale prices across Bay Area counties and Oakland.

Chart comparing 2018 median detached-house lot sizes across ten Bay Area markets, led by Lamorinda at 16,500 square feet.

Bay Area Median Condo Values

Chart of Bay Area condo and co-op median prices by county, 1996–2019; San Francisco prices are highest.

Bay Area Median Dollar per Square Foot Values

Bay Area county home-value chart, 1996–2019, with San Francisco highest and five county trends compared.

Line chart comparing Bay Area median housing values across six counties from 1996 to 2019.

Bay Area Luxury Home Markets

Chart compares Bay Area counties’ high-end home sales by price segment, with San Francisco market notes.

Median Sales Prices for Large Homes in Expensive Bay Area Markets

Bar chart of 5+ bedroom home prices across Bay Area cities, from $1.7 million in Berkeley Hills to $11.4 million in Atherton.

Bar chart of monthly Bay Area home sales over $2 million, peaking at 816 sales in May 2018.

High-end home markets in outlying counties – the four with the lowest percentages in the chart below – have softened considerably, and would typically be considered to be in buyer’s market territory – much more supply than demand. This doesn’t mean, however, that some luxury homes there don’t sell quickly at excellent prices. It does mean that many luxury homes don’t sell without price reductions, or don’t sell at all.

Bar chart of Bay Area $2 million-plus listings sold, with Oakland highest at 47.9%.

In many ways, average dollar per square foot values give a better indication of what one actually gets for one’s dollar in different counties.

Bar chart of average per-square-foot prices for $2 million-plus home sales across Bay Area counties.

Bay Area & U.S. Home Prices, Appreciation Trends & Affordability

The next chart illustrates the dramatic divergence since 2012 between Bay Area home price appreciation – supercharged by the high-tech boom – and the national trend line.

Chart comparing San Francisco metro-area and U.S. home-price appreciation from 1987 to 2019.

Median 3-Bedroom Home Sales Prices around the Country

Chart comparing estimated three-bedroom home values across U.S. cities, from Philadelphia to San Francisco.

Housing affordability index by metro area, with San Jose and San Francisco among the least affordable.

Active Listings on the Market

Bar chart comparing active real estate listings across Bay Area counties and regions on June 30, 2019.

Bar chart of active San Francisco Bay Area real estate listings, 2013–2019, showing seasonal fluctuations.

Home Sales Volumes

Bar chart of Bay Area home sales through July 2019, led by Alameda, Contra Costa, and Santa Clara.

Chart of Bay Area monthly home sales, showing seasonal peaks in May, June, and July from 2008 to 2019.

Bay Area Home Sales by Price Segment

Bar chart of Bay Area condo and co-op sales by price segment, peaking at 3,896 sales for $500,000–$749,000.

Bay Area Real Estate Market Indicators

Below are a wide variety of standard market statistics broken out by county or region to illustrate respective market conditions, as well as overall trend lines to illustrate the general market direction and the effect of seasonality on supply and demand.

Looking just at 2019 YTD stats, the greater Oakland-Berkeley market has been the strongest in the Bay Area. In San Francisco, the picture is muddied a little by the fact that the city’s house and condo markets have somewhat different dynamics: New-condo construction has increased supply in that segment, while the supply of house listings has declined markedly since 2010, making houses the scarce resource in a high-demand environment.